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We first became aware of The World Football Elo Ratings in 2006 when my colleague Andy Coyle was looking for new angles on the then upcoming World Cup in Germany 2006.
The World Football Elo Ratings are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo (not to be confused with Birmingham Beatles-soundalikes ELO who racked up twenty UK hit singles in their 1970s heyday).
Dr Elo’s system is used by FIDE, the international chess federation, to rate chess players. In 1997 Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football and posted the results on the Internet. He was also the first maintainer of the World Football Elo Ratings web site.
The system was adapted to football by adding a weighting for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result.
What I particularly like about the Elo ratings are that they allow you to look at close match-ups with a view to exploiting bookmaker’s price variances.
Invariably, on any given card, the stats will suggest that some opponents are well matched even where the bookmakers’ prices suggest not. As such, these ratings are ideal for throwing up draws, low scoring games or handicap bets that favour unfashionable teams against more illustrious opponents.
www.eloratings.net
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